Indo- China Stand Off

Indo- China Stand Off

The noise in the airwaves of the Indian media over the stand -off between India and China amounts to brouhaha- an over excited reaction. Whatever the immediate catalyst or even premise for the stand-off, the prosaic reality is that the standoff and the attendant noise over it is mere posturing. It will be resolved amicably; no limited skirmish let alone war will take place between the two countries. The reasons pertain to economics, geo-politics , and military capability. One, both China and India operate in a world where they are enmeshed in what is called “complex interdependence”- that is, thick flows of global and regional commerce and trade. The economies and economic development of both countries is contingent on being part of this paradigm. War- even the limited variety- will throw a spanner into the works of this paradigm and both countries will regress. Two, China has invested comprehensively in military modernization; its military capability and potential exceeds or is far superior than that of India. China’s assiduous focus on economic growth and development and military modernization is premised on its quest for Great Power status; in this sense, it is competing with and against the United States. This, among other things, explains its superiority in military, economy and geopolitical terms. The presence of nuclear weapons and deterrence paradigms thereof also militate against a full blown or limited confrontation. India then realistically cannot match China in most or even all indices of power and strength. This holds true even when and if the United States and India have come closer over the years. This relationship is not in the nature of an alliance but is premised on mutual interests. And , it is quite obvious that the United States will not help or assist India in a substantive manner if war occurs between the two. This is because the United States is also enmeshed in a complex interdependence paradigm with China( Trump’s isolationist instincts not withstanding) and geo-politically the country needs China and would not want to antagonize it. What then explains the standoff? Egotism might constitute the most relevant answer. But egotism , in interstate relations, flounders on the realities of power and power politics. This prosaic reality will take a little time to register and sink in. The standoff will then quietly slip away from headlines and both sides will climb down from their respective posturing.

 

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One Response to "Indo- China Stand Off"

  1. G. Din   August 15, 2017 at 12:59 am

    All the “noise”, the warnings, the ultimatums are coming from Chinkies. But that would not serve your purpose for belittling India, would it? If anything, India has acted with considerable restraint, something even Americans have noticed and appreciated.

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